Local Government, Civic Affairs and Education
Data from The Reconnect Research/ Roanoke College Poll: Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points (53%-38%) in Virginia according to The Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Poll.[1] Only 5% are undecided, and 4% said they will vote for Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate. Fully 95% of those who support either candidate are very certain of their vote intention. Biden’s lead was 12 points in the May Roanoke College Poll and 14 points in August. U.S. Senator Mark Warner leads Daniel Gade, his Republican opponent (55%-38%). The Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Poll interviewed 602 likely Virginia voters[2] between Sept. 30 and Oct. 12.
More than 90% of Democrats said they would vote for Biden, while just under 90% of Republicans said they would vote for Trump. Only 4% of Democrats said they would cross over to vote for Trump while 6% of Republicans said they plan to vote for Biden.
Trump, Biden, and the issues
Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 41%/56% while Biden is at 52%/44%. Trump’s numbers are slightly improved from August, while Biden’s are marginally worse. One-third of likely voters think that the candidates represent their issues and policy preferences very well or somewhat well (32% for Trump and 33% for Biden), but almost half (48%) say Trump does not represent their interests very well or not at all, while 34% say that about Biden.
Typical of most elections, a plurality of likely voters (23%) see the economy as the most important issue. However, significant percentages view the COVID virus (17%), race relations (14%), Supreme Court appointments (12%), and civil unrest (10%) as most important. Regarding the Supreme Court appointment, the majority of respondents (56%) think the appointment should be made by the winner of the election, but 41% think it should be made by the end of the year.
Nearly three-fourths (71%) of respondents think the country is on the wrong track, while only a quarter (24%) think it is headed in the right direction.
Voter confidence in the election
Barely half (51%) of likely voters are very confident or somewhat confident that the votes across the country will be accurately counted in the election, while almost as many (46%) are not too confident or not all confident. Similarly, respondents are divided with 49% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident that the nation will accept the official outcome and winners of the election and 47% reporting that they are somewhat or very confident the results will be accepted.
Analysis
“Biden maintains his lead over Trump in a race that has been extremely eventful but appears to be impervious to events,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Roanoke College Poll. “The overall numbers have changed very little over the course of many months, and time is quickly running out for the Trump campaign. It is not a surprise that the underfunded Daniel Gade trails the well-known incumbent Mark Warner.”
“Perhaps of most concern for everyone here is the overall lack of confidence in the nation’s ability to conduct a fair and accurate election and the potential unwillingness of Americans to accept the outcome as legitimate.”
Methodology
Interviewing for The Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Poll was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 12, 2020. A total of 602 likely voters in Virginia who provided a substantive answer to the presidential vote question were included in this analysis. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. Survox, by Enghouse Interactive, conducted the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) data collection. Reconnect Research provided the Redirected Inbound Call Sampling (RICS) sample for this survey.
The sample of likely voters consisted of adults aged 18 years or older, who were placing a telephone call. The sampling frame was a set of phone calls that were placed any time during the fielding period in which the call did not reach its intended party and was redirected by the telephone service company handling the call to Reconnect Research. When someone dialed a nonworking number, rather than playing an “error” message and ending the call, the caller was redirected to the survey recruitment and data collection system.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) developed the questionnaire and analyzed the data. To reduce the likelihood of nonignorable primacy effects in the final data, some questions had their response options spoken in a reverse order at random half of the time.
RICS produces a nonprobability sample, which research has suggested does quite well in terms of representing the U.S. national population. RICS unweighted final samples often have a considerably larger portion of low-educational attainment and minority respondents than the unweighted final samples for outbound telephone surveys. On other demographic characteristics, RICS unweighted final samples match population parameters, including geographic location, fairly well.
The data were statistically weighted for region, sex, education, age, race, and political party affiliation based on the 2016 exit poll in Virginia. The design effect (deff)associated with the weighting was 1.86.
Nonprobability samples do not allow the use of a traditional margin of sampling error. If this was a probability sample, which it isnot, the estimate of sampling error would be approximately ±5.4%, including the design effect. However, there is no margin of error associated with this survey.
A copy of the questionnaire, topline, and select crosstabs may be foundhere.
More information about the Poll may be obtained by contacting Scott Richards at Reconnect Research atScott@ReconnectResearch.com or (310) 613-8686 or Dr. Harry Wilson at wilson@roanoke.edu or (540) 375-2415 or the Roanoke College Public Relations Office at (540) 375-2282.
This poll is funded by Reconnect Research and Roanoke College as a public service.
[1] These figures include those who already voted. Including the responses of those who said they were leaning toward voting for a particular candidate, the results are Biden, 54%, Trump 39%, Jorgensen 4%, Undecided 4%.
[2] Respondents were screened to include registered voters who said they were very likely to vote.
Sherman Lea, Sr.
Photo: David Bowers Facebook
Roanoke Mayor Sherman Lea Sr. faced off against challenger and former long-time Mayor David Bowers during a Kiwanis club debate today. Perhaps the biggest disagreement was over where to put a new downtown bus station. Lea and Bowers also discussed their views on gun violence and the city’s pandemic response. They will appear together again at a Roanoke Regional Chamber of Commerce forum next Thursday. Lea defended the planned location near the Virginia Museum of Transportation – shot down by the Board of Zoning Appeals – while Bowers alluded to an earlier study.
Virginia’s voter registration deadline has been extended until tomorrow, October 15th at midnight. That’s according to Governor Northam’s official Twitter account. This comes after a severed fiber optic cable shut down Virginia’s online voter registration system yesterday, which was the last day to register before the November general election.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Virginia has weighed in on a judge’s decision to extend the state’s online voter registration system until tomorrow midnight, after it went down yesterday when a fiber optic trunk line was cut by contractors: saying the Federal Court judge did the right thing – also adding that voters should not be penalized for “the latest of the Northam administration’s failures in election administration.” The RPV also suggests calling “Miss Utility at 811 before you dig.”
The Roanoke Rescue Mission Drumstick Dash is virtual this year and can be run or walked anytime during the month of November. The first 2500 people who do register for the 5K fundraiser will also receive a hood shirt designed for running says race director Kevin Berry. Signup at Drumstick Dash dot-net. Berry says early packet pickup dates will be announced soon. Proceeds fund the Mission’s meal program all year long.
An area museum has come up with an interesting way to raise money by bringing new life to some old furniture. WFIR’s Rob Ruthenberg has this report.
Feeding Southwest Virginia received 20,000 pounds of food today that came all the way from Salt Lake City – courtesy of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. This is the third shipment to the Salem-based food bank in 2020 from the church – totaling around 112,000 pounds. Local LDS congregations helped fund the latest shipment. 9th district Congressman Morgan Griffith was on hand; he says its good that faith-based organizations are involved in the ongoing fight against hunger:
Ian Price photo
Another historical marker was unveiled this morning honoring a rescue crew – this one on Luck Avenue in downtown Roanoke. Founded in 1928, the Roanoke Life Saving and First Aid Crew was organized by Julian Stanley Wise and is recognized as the first independent, all-volunteer rescue squad in the country. Former Roanoke Mayor Nelson Harris researched the background and applied for the state historical marker on the First Aid Crew. He’s written numerous books on Roanoke’s history. (Last week another marker recognizing a former Gainsboro crew was also unveiled). Vice-Mayor Joe Cobb says it took a few years to catch on:
