Mike Chatham, a professor of accounting at Radford University, is offering bracket advice for casual fans as the NCAA Tournament approaches.
Chatham said bracket players often focus too much on obvious favorites and not enough on the middle of the field. Tournament history shows at least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 every year since 2008.
Chatham said if one of those teams survives deep into a bracket, there’s one matchup worth watching closely.
“If you’ve got an 11 seed that makes it to the Sweet 16, they’re going to play either a 2 or a 3, and they’re both gonna be pretty even,” Chatham said. “So at that point, do you take the 2 or 3 as a favorite, or do you take the 11 as a flyer?”
Action Network data shows 11-seeds are the only double-digit seed that has been profitable outright in first-round games since 2010.
Upset strategy and seeding trends
Chatham said the best upset range usually is not the biggest mismatch on the board. More realistic early surprises tend to come where the seeds are closer and where tournament history shows those games are more competitive.
“The 12-5 games have been fairly close, but as far as predictable upsets go, the 9s have beaten the 8s more often,” Chatham said.
Chatham noted that five, six and seven seeds only win about 60% of the time in first-round matchups, making 10, 11 and 12 seeds viable upset picks. He cautioned against picking too many 15-over-2 or 16-over-1 upsets, suggesting bracket players focus on mid-range seeding for realistic surprises.
Historical patterns favor number-one seeds
Despite the potential for upsets, Chatham cautioned against getting carried away. Number-one seeds still win the national title more than any other seed, with 65% of NCAA champions coming from the top line.
“I don’t see one of those teams standing out as obvious final four material, but given that 65% of the NCAA champions have been number one seed, fairly safe to throw at least one or two in your final four,” Chatham said.
Additional trends to consider include teams with more senior rosters, which tend to perform better late in the tournament, and strength of schedule. Chatham said teams that had to navigate tougher conferences during the regular season often have an advantage.
Chatham has run a March Madness bracket competition for 21 years and encourages casual fans not to be intimidated by the process.
“The grandmother that picks the mascot based on who has a cuter mascot tends to do just as well as the ESPN analyst,” Chatham said. “That’s what’s really fun about the tournament.”
