A new statewide poll from Christopher Newport University shows Joe Biden holding a five-point lead over President Trump, 48-43%. It the narrowest margin we have seen in any such Virginia poll this year; all previous ones showed Biden with double-digit leads. The Wason Center Poll questioned close to 800 Virginians over a 12-day period this month.
CLICK HERE for full poll results and methodology.
NEWS RELEASE: NEWPORT NEWS, Va. – Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead in Virginia over President Donald Trump, 48% to 43%, according to a survey of likely voters released today by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Among Virginians who are enthusiastic about voting in the Nov. 3 election, Biden’s lead jumps to 8 points, 51%-43%.
“Enthusiasm is a key to Biden’s lead and will be a key to turnout on Election Day,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said. “We saw an enthusiasm gap of 6 points between Democrats and Republicans in this survey.”
Among those voters, Biden shows a 27% advantage among women (61% to 34%), 18% among voters younger voters (56%-38%), 61% among Black voters (75%-14%), and 36% among college-educated voters (66%-30%). Biden also holds Trump to a draw among enthusiastic voters 45 and older, a bloc that has favored Trump in the past. Trump’s advantage with enthusiastic voters is 17% among non-college-educated voters (54%-37%), 20% among white voters (53%-43%) and 12% among men (52%-40%).
Seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate, Democrat Mark Warner has a sizeable lead over Republican challenger Daniel Gade among both likely voters (52% to 39%) and very likely voters (52% to 41%). Warner’s lead is built on strong support among the traditional Democratic coalition of women, Black voters, younger voters and college- educated voters, but he also leads among independents and voters 45 and older. Gade has a slight lead among men and white voters and a significant lead among non-college-educated voters.
Virginia voters appear poised to pass the state constitutional amendment that would change how General Assembly and Congressional districts are drawn, with support at 48% and opposition at 28% (24% are undecided). Support is strong among Democratic voters, Black voters, and college-educated voters. Republican voters oppose the amendment and independents are largely split. “Considering that the Democratic Party of Virginia opposes this amendment, there seems to be a real disconnect with voters at the grassroots about reforming the way legislative districts are drawn,” said Bromley-Trujillo.
The Wason Center interviewed 796 registered Virginia voters on cell phone and landline, September 9-21. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.9%. The full report is attached.